Do Cross-Sectional Predictors Contain Systematic Information?

Posted: 5 Oct 2019 | Last revised: 3 May 2022

Joseph Engelberg
University of California, San Diego (UCSD) – Rady School of Management

R. David McLean
Georgetown University – Department of Finance

Jeffrey Pontiff
Boston College – Department of Finance

Matthew C. Ringgenberg
University of Utah – Department of Finance

Abstract

Firm-level variables that predict cross-sectional stock returns, such as price-to-earnings and short interest, are often averaged and used to predict the time series of market returns. We extend this literature and limit the data-snooping bias by using a large population of the literature’s cross-sectional return predictors. We find the literature has ignored several cross-sectional variables–such as asset turnover and Z-score–that contain strong in-sample predictability when examined in isolation. However, after accounting for the number of predictors and their interdependence, we find only weak evidence that cross-sectional predictors make good time-series predictors, especially out-of-sample.

 

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